Monday 13 June 2022

Time to load up now or to build a substantial war chest to wait for the deepest dip?

*I like to emphasize that I am not a financial advisor nor am I able to provide you with advise as I am not trained and all of the information here and on my blog are opinions of my own which I record and document my learning journey.

As I am writing this up, Ethereum has previously dropped to a low of about USD1200 and Bitcoin was almost touching USD22,000. Crazy crazy! I like Ethereum and Bitcoin and Ethereum especially as it has been used as a currency of exchange for NFTs and DeFi. Bitcoin is definitely the OG and being a store of value with it being limited in supply is a really good hold in my opinion. Ethereum has a clear roadmap on how it will be pan out in the future moving towards PoS although it has been experiencing delays, anyway from my Q2 Portfolio update (early update as I made a mistake in the dates), you would know that I am DCA-ing into QQQ, BTC and ETH. When then is the best time to go in with the available funds?

Is now the best time to enter?

I am no guru and on twitter, there are definitely many different opinions on whether it is the best time to buy now. Some say that the bottom is in although we can see that there will be much pain coming ahead, others say that they are expecting a more massive crash coming and to hold on to buying in first. Remember that no one can predict the market and so choose whatever strategy works best for you, in bear markets, survival is most important meaning to be able to hold on to your current convictions and not having to liquidate it for daily use or payments. So being able to add on positions will be a bonus as I do see a number of layoffs and I am pretty worried as well for my job security at the moment.

For me, I am DCA-ing a low 3 digit into Ethereum and into Bitcoin monthly, the amount fluctuates and is not fixed as I adjust it accordingly. But I maintain my DCA positions meaning to buy in monthly no matter what unless I find myself wanting to build up cash or if my job appears shaky. I have tried timing the market before and I have to admit that I caught the bottom ZERO times, haha, the market always rebounds faster than I thought of course this is considering my short investing journey where I haven’t been through a long bear market.

So timing the market is out for me as I do want to be off the screen during this period and not to be checking prices ever so often. It does make me feel a little lousy seeing prices drop although I believe in the things that I invest in but the macro environment proves to be tough and is affecting both the stock and crypto market where crypto is generally seen as more risky.

Current Market Situation and Sentiments

I am sure everyone is aware of the current macro environment, from the Russia-Ukraine war that is creating a commodity and energy crisis. Europe is really experiencing the pain of the energy crisis as they previously was advocating for reduction of carbon emissions hence they import their energy and mainly from Russia but due to the war, Russia has raised prices and Europe is very dependent on it. Russia is also the world’s largest exporter of wheat.

On the other hand, Ukraine exports grains which accounts for about 1/5 of its exports and there are many uses for the grains grown where it is intended for animals, alcohol, fuel, or other uses. Besides having grains being stuck due to the war, the harvest and planting of the grains are unable to proceed due to the war for example, the largest harvest of wheat for Ukraine in July was planted in Feb and Mar. Of course, there are new sources like India however it is whether they will be able to match the demand considering that they could experience a drought similar to what they experienced in 2021. We also know that sunflower oil is exported by Ukraine hence there was a period where hawkers had to raise prices as cooking oil was increasing in prices.

There is not much transparency on how the supplies are distributed and many countries are also trying to control the prices of commodities by implementing some sort of ban which can disrupt the supplies especially to countries like Singapore which imports many of it’s items.

On the side of crypto, Celsius has recently announced that they have stopped transfers, swaps and withdrawals which sounds crazy although there were already warning signs before but as a lending platform and a huge one, no one expected them to stop withdrawals. It was slowly revealed that as prices drop, liquidations happen and you would require extra capital to prevent those liquidations.

Maybe we should be more concerned about our survival rather than the stock market?

The most important thing right now is to make sure you have sufficient funds to tide you through if you were to lose your job or not needing to liquidate your positions to fund payments. I saw this tweet online where the author mentioned that he was excited for the housing market to crash by 50% and more so that it will be more affordable but the following replies to the tweet talked about how he should be worrying that he should still be holding onto a job and to ensure he will have capital to buy a property as a 50% fall in property prices is devastating and would cause a lot of downstream impacts.

Things do sound really bad, both on mainstream media as well as on twitter (although twitter do have some quality jokes accompanied with it). I think for the months to come or at least for the rest of 2022 and 2023, survival should be the number 1 concern meaning to ensure you are employed and have a job to pay the bills or to make sure you have that cash buffer. All others can then be slowly DCA into the market as I do think this would be a long-stretched recovery as there are really too many negative macro factors and controls in place for time to come.

Here’s wishing that everyone stay safe and take the time to have a short break or to build up your knowledge. For me, I will be reading a lot more physical books to increase my knowledge as I haven’t really been reading books but mostly digital short content. Do know that the recovery will come and if you do need someone to talk to about your situation, don’t hesitate to get help. Thanks for staying till the end!

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  1. Whats wrong with liquidating positions to fund payments or life expenses?

    1. I am currently in the accumulation phase and hence I do not want to sell my positions especially at a time when the prices have dropped substantially. Time in the market>Timing the market. If you are a retiree, I guess you would liquidate your positions to fund payments if needed. It differs by individual but I think most would not want to liquidate during a market downturn.

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  2. Is there solid, 100%, proof that Time in the market>Timing the market?

    1. It will be great if you can time the market. However, we are no fortune-tellers to tell signal of bulling up and bearing down. Even those who are studying technical could only hypothesize. There is only one certainty. A down cycle nearly always follow by a bull cycle (Don't know when).

  3. If you make money already, then just sell la? Seriously.